U.S. Energy Prices 2025–2026: Statistics, Trends and Data

The Iran war has rewritten the US energy price outlook for 2026. Brent crude settled at $94 per barrel on March 9, up approximately 50% from the start of the year, and the EIA has revised its 2026 annual average gasoline forecast from $2.90 to $3.34 per gallon. Natural gas production hit a record 118.5 Bcf/d in 2025. Electricity demand is growing at its fastest pace since 2005, driven by data centres. Renewables crossed 25% of electricity generation for the first time. This is the complete 2025 to 2026 data guide to US energy prices, sourced directly from the EIA's March 10, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook and supporting publications.

US Energy Prices in 2026: The Iran War Reshapes Every Forecast

The EIA's March 10, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released less than a week ago, represents the most consequential single revision to US energy price forecasts since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. Brent crude settled at $94 per barrel on March 9, up approximately 50% from the start of the year, after petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply following the onset of military action in the Middle East. The EIA's annual average gasoline forecast for 2026 jumped from $2.90 per gallon (January 2026 pre-war forecast) to $3.34 per gallon, a 44 cent revision in a single STEO cycle. The EIA expects gasoline prices to run approximately 60 to 70 cents per gallon above forecast in March and Q2 2026 before declining toward $3.00 per gallon by year-end as oil prices fall back.

The US enters this energy price shock from a position of structural strength. According to the EIA's own March 2026 STEO, the United States produces 13.6 million barrels per day of crude oil in 2026, the highest in US history. Natural gas production hit a record 118.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2025. Because the US is energy self-sufficient in production terms, the Iran war's direct supply impact is limited compared to Europe, Japan or South Korea. What the US cannot fully escape is the global price impact: oil is a globally priced commodity, and when Brent rises to $94 per barrel, every American driver pays more at the pump regardless of where the crude they fill up on was actually produced.

Crude Oil Prices: The Iran War Reversal

Gasoline Prices: $3.34 Average in 2026

Natural Gas: Record Production, Rising Prices

Electricity Prices: Growing Demand, Rising Costs

US Electricity Generation Mix: Renewables Cross 25%

The Iran War: Quantifying the Energy Price Impact

The EIA's March 10, 2026 STEO is explicit about the Iran war's quantified effect on US energy prices. Brent crude settled at $94 per barrel on March 9, approximately 50% higher than the start of 2026, because petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen sharply and some Middle East oil production has been shut in. The EIA's forecast assumes this shut-in production will gradually resume as Strait transit returns. The most direct US consumer impact is at the gasoline pump: the EIA's 2026 annual average gasoline forecast rose from $2.90 per gallon (January 2026 pre-war) to $3.34 per gallon in March, a 44 cent revision in a single month. March and Q2 2026 prices are projected to run 60 to 70 cents above pre-war forecasts.

Renewables: The 25% Milestone and the Data Centre Challenge

Renewable energy crossed 25% of US electricity generation for the first time in 2025, according to the EIA's January 2026 press release, and the EIA forecasts the share will rise to 27% in 2026. Solar was the fastest-growing source, expanding 32% in 2025 and adding 66 billion kilowatt-hours of generation. The EIA forecasts solar generation will grow another 21% in both 2026 and 2027 following the addition of almost 70 gigawatts of new capacity. Wind grew steadily and now accounts for approximately 11% of total generation. The challenge facing renewable growth is demand growth that is outpacing even the record build-out of new capacity. Data centre electricity consumption is growing so rapidly that the EIA explicitly noted fossil generation could rise faster than forecast if AI infrastructure investment continues to accelerate beyond current projections.

State Energy Price Variations

State-level energy prices in the US vary dramatically. For gasoline, the primary driver of state-to-state variation is state taxes and fees, which ranged from 70.9 cents per gallon in California to 9.0 cents per gallon in Alaska as of January 1, 2026, according to the EIA's March 4, 2026 Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. The national average state gasoline tax was 33.3 cents per gallon. As Wikipedia's overview of US energy documents, states with no or low income taxes (Texas, Florida, Wyoming) typically set higher fuel taxes as a revenue substitute; states with state income taxes (California, New York, Illinois) pile fuel taxes on top. For electricity, California and Hawaii have the highest residential prices nationally (above 25 cents per kWh), while Louisiana, Oklahoma and Wyoming have the lowest (below 11 cents per kWh), primarily reflecting the cost mix of local generation sources: Louisiana and Oklahoma rely heavily on abundant low-cost natural gas and coal, while California's tight grid and high renewable mandates push costs higher.

US Energy Prices: Complete Data Table 2025-2026

US Energy Price Outlook: Key Forecasts

Frequently Asked Questions

What Comes Next?

The next critical EIA data releases are the April 7, 2026 STEO and the monthly Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. The April STEO will be the first to incorporate the full March 2026 oil market data, giving a cleaner read on whether the Strait of Hormuz disruption is easing as the EIA's current March models assume. If Brent remains above $90 per barrel through March, the EIA's forecast that prices fall below $80 in Q3 will require a significant downward revision and annual average gasoline prices will exceed the current $3.34 projection. Conversely, if the Iran conflict de-escalates, prices could fall faster than modelled toward the pre-war $2.90 baseline.

The structural story beneath the Iran war volatility is the most consequential US energy development in decades: the simultaneous records in natural gas production (118.5 Bcf/d in 2025, 121 Bcf/d forecast in 2026), crude oil production (13.6 Mb/d in 2026), and electricity generation (4,275 BkWh in 2025) all at a time when electricity demand is growing at the fastest pace since 2005 due to AI and data centre infrastructure. The US is producing more energy than at any point in its history across all three primary categories, yet prices are rising because demand is growing faster than supply. The data centre electricity boom is the single most important development in US energy markets over the next five years, and the EIA's projections for solar, natural gas and the grid all reflect that reality.